I'm finally getting some time to peruse the latest MTSU Poll.
The first thing that jumps out is that 73% could not name one single candidate for governor. It's early yet (the primary is 152 days away) but as of January the candidates had already raised over $13 million. So somebody's paying attention. Let your imagination run wild as to who.
Well-educated men who frequently read newspapers were most likely to name a gubernatorial candidate. People who watch television news at least four times per week were more likely to name Haslam.
Among those who could name a candidate, 19% named Haslam and 10% named Wamp. Only 4.1% named Ramsey.
When asked if they'd heard of a specific candidate by name, Wamp had the highest name recognition at 48%, followed by McWherter at 47% with Haslam coming in third at 45%. Rounding out the pack are Ramsey at 42%, Gibbons at 36%, and McMillan at 33%.
Among those familiar with a candidate, Haslam had the highest level of support at 12% v. 5% who oppose. Those familiar with Wamp are split (10% support v. 10% oppose), as are those familiar with McWherter (6% v. 6%). Ramsey (5% support v. 6% oppose) and McMillan (3% v. 4%) are the only remaining candidates with more opposition than support.
McMillan has a steep hill to climb, and McWherter's name recognition appears to be a factor but it isn't helping him in the favorability department. The road to the governor's mansion may be paved with Haslam gold, but it's conceivable that Wamp or even Ramsey could jump on board the populist, tea party crazy train and ride it in for a primary win.
Speaking of the tea party movement, 84% of those who view it favorably prefer Fox News over any other network news outlet, and are more likely to be white, religiously conservative, and male. Duh.
Speaking of favorability, the State Legislature gets a failing score of 36%. That's down two points from the fall, but it's twice as high as the current national Congressional favorability rating (18%).
As for who should control the state legislature, 35% want Republicans in control and 29% want Democrats in charge. 30% don't care. Among self-identified "independents," 34% prefer Republicans v. 18% who prefer Democrats.
On health care reform, 53% say Congress should start over, 22% say Congress should pass a bill similar to what has been proposed, and only 16% say Congress should do nothing. Among Republicans, 33% say do nothing, and 61% say Congress should start over.
Unfortunately, the poll did not ask about specific proposals, such as prohibiting exclusion and rescission, a public option, caps on medical loss ratios, malpractice reforms, etc.
It's difficult to imagine that people who couldn't name a candidate for governor know much about what's actually in the proposed legislation, other than it's a socialist government takeover that will kill Grandma. 53% believe in The Rapture, though.
Other oddities and observations:
• 23% don't know that Joe Biden is the Vice President.
• 17% didn't vote in the 2008 presidential election.
• 65% have never contacted an elected official or candidate.
• 83% have never written a letter to the editor or called in to a radio talk show.
• 36% don't know that Democrats hold a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
• 57% don't know that a two-thirds majority vote is required to override a veto.
• 62% use the internet an hour or more per day.
• 61% watch TV news seven days a week, 32% read a newspaper seven days a week.
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Tea Party
29% favorable + 9% are members.Thats 38%.Pretty big number.The question I have..how many of those folks are in the 17% that didn't vote in '08.Very,very few voters that don't vote in the presidential election will vote in the mid term.OTH,if the Tea Party folks are chronic voters their 38% could swell to a majority of the voters in the mid terms.
Per Knox County Election Commission:
188,910 voted in the 2008 Presidential
126,184 voted in the 2006 Mid Terms
For the 2008 presidential
94,456 = 50% + 1
For the 2006 mid terms
63,093 = 50% + 1
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